The relief was palpable. After years dogged by debts and losses, Fiat, standard-bearer of the Italian car industry, was back.

When PricewaterhouseCoopers released its list of the worlds 12 leading car manufacturers last week, based on results for last year and predictions for this year, there was Fiat Auto not in pole position, the prize chased by Toyota, General Motors and Ford but in at No 10, ahead of Suzuki and BMW Mini. Fiat back in the Top Ten, read the headline in Il Giornale.

Much of the credit goes to Luca Cordero di Montezemolo, the dynamic and charismatic head of Fiat and Ferrari. Yet, as at Ferrari, where Mr di Montezemolo masterminded the revival of the Formula One motor racing team with the help of talent such as Ross Brawn, the Manchester-born technical director, and Michael Schumacher, the great German driver, so Fiats success has more than one architect.

In this case, it is Sergio Marchionne, who took over as chief executive of Fiat in June 2004 and of the loss-making car division in February 2005 said to be an aggressive manager who tends to deliver better-than-expected results.

Born in Chieti in central Italy, his career developed in Canada. He attended the University of Toronto before earning a masters degree in business administration from the University of Windsor, in Ontario, and a law degree from York University, in Toronto.

Certified as an accountant, Mr Marchionne worked for Deloitte & Touche in Canada before moving to Switzerland to join Alusuisse Lonza Group, eventually becoming chief executive of Soci?t? G?n?rale de Surveillance, a Swiss goods inspection company.

He joined the Fiat board as an independent member in 2003. Soon after Umberto Agnelli, the Fiat chief executive, died of cancer, Mr Marchionne was named his successor, with Mr di Montezemolo as chairman. It was a tough call. After all, Mr Marchionne was Fiats fifth chief executive in two years.

He relaunched the Bravo and the Punto and is about to relaunch the legendary Fiat 500, or Cinquecento. At a recent presentation in Monte Carlo of Fiats 2007 strategy for Iveco, its lorry and bus division, he said that he would remain at the helm of Fiat Auto to ensure that the turnaround continued. Its clear that this is not the time to stop, he said. There is still a lot of work to be done.

Action Insight | Written by ActionForex.com | Apr 30 07 07:31 GMT |
Forex Daily Technical Report Dollar Mildly High ahead of PCE, Yen on Risk Aversion

Euro edges lower today on the back of pressure in EUR/JPY as well as disappointing German retail sales data. China’s central bank increased reserve requirements by 50 basis points to 11% to cool economy. Such move has prompted fear of further tightening from PBoC and in turn triggered some carry trade unwinding in the Japanese yen. However, the move from China is actually not that unexpected and the rise in yen is exaggerated by the lack of liquidity in thin holiday markets. After all, most pairs are still in range awaiting major data from the US.

M3 money supply and CPI estimate will be the main focus in the European session. Money supply growth continued to defy expectation by accelerating to 17 years high of 10% in Feb. Such strong growth in M3 strengthened the case for further tightening from ECB as it’s used as an indication of future inflation. M3 is again expected to retreat slightly to 9.7% in Mar but even in case the growth does moderate, a mild pullback won’t change the expectation that ECB’s cycle is not over yet. Eurozone CPI CPI is expected to drop slightly from 1.9% to 1.8% in Apr. Other data include EUrozone consumer sentiments and business climate, as well as Gfk consumer confidence from UK.

Main focus in the US session will be on Mar personal income and spending. While income is expected to steadily grow at 0.6%, consumption is expected to slow slightly from 0.6% to 0.5%. The Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, the core PCE deflator is expected to increase 0.1% mom only, dragging the yoy rate from 2.4% to 2.2%. Even though this reading, if comes in as expected, is still above Fed’s comfort zone of 1-2%, if could ease Fed member’s fear that inflation is back accelerating after Core PCE deflator rebounded from 2.2% to 2.4% in Feb. Coupled with resumed moderation in core CPI released earlier this month, there will be some evidence that Fed’s prior rate hikes are still playing the effect in moderating inflation. If such trend continues, Fed members’s focus will start to lean more towards concern on slowing growth and could prompt increased speculation of a rate cut in Q4. EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3595; (P) 1.3638; (R1) 1.3691; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

EUR/USD’s retreat from 1.3681 continues today but after all it’s still staying in tight range. As discussed before, even though EUR/USD made a new record high of 1.3681 last week, the break above 04 high of 1.3668 was not decisive. Upside momentum is neither convincing as bearish divergence conditions remains in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Risk of a short term reversal remains high. Though, another risk could still be seen as long as EUR/USD stays above 1.3605 support. Break of 1.3583 will suggest a short term top is formed and bring retreat towards the short term channel support (now at 1.3506).

In the bigger picture, now, with 1.3668 target met, risk of medium term reversal is also increasing. As discussed before, medium term up trend from 1.1639 is treated is interpreted as having first move completed with three waves up to 1.2978, subsequent sideway consolidation completed at 1.2483. Rise from 1.2483 is treated as resumption of the whole up trend from 1.1639. With such interpretation we’d expect risk of medium term reversal to increase significantly as EUR/USD enter into resistance zone between 1.3668 and 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. Hence, focus will then be on reversal signal.

However, sustained break of the short term channel support is needed to be the first warning of the completion of whole rally from 1.2865. Otherwise, EUR/USD’s rise could continue to extend further to medium term rising channel resistance (now at 1.3791) and mentioned 1.3822 projection target. On the downside, break of the short term rising channel support will indicate the rise from 1.2865 has likely completed. Break of 1.3406/10 support will confirm such case and deeper decline should then be seen to 55 days EMA (now at 1.3354). More importantly, this will be the first warning that the rise rally from 1.2483 has completed, and thus, so is the whole up trend from 1.1639. Focus will then be back to medium term rising channel support (now at 1.2952).

GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9877; (P) 1.9959; (R1) 2.0053; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

Cable edges lower today as rebound from 1.9864 is still limited by 2.0058 resistance. As discussed before, the correction from 2.0132 should still be in progress as long as 2.0058 holds and short term risk remains on the downside. Sustained break of 1.9855 support, with short term rising channel support (now at 1.9896) taken out, will warn that the rise from 1.9183 has already completed at 2.0132 and encourage deeper decline to 1.9723/26 support first. On the upside, above 2.0058 will indicate the correction from 2.0132 has already completed and rally from 1.9183 has possibly resumed.

In the bigger picture, we’d like maintain that risk of medium term reversal remains high and is increasing. Firstly, the whole up trend from 1.7047 is not clearly impulsive. One interpretation is that rally from 1.7047 ended with three waves up to 1.9024. Subsequent correction ended at 1.8090. Rally from 1.8090 has already met mentioned target of 100% projection of 1.7047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067. Secondly, regardless of the larger trend, rise from 1.8090 can be interpreted as being a five wave sequence with first wave ended at 1.9142, second at 1.8517, third at 1.9913 and fourth at 1.9183. The channeling property supports this interpretation too. In such case, the fifth wave rally from 1.9183 has also met target of 61.8% projection of 1.8517 to 1.9913 from 1.9183 at 2.0046 too. With bearish divergence condition remains in weekly RSI and Daily MACD and key 2.0106 resistance (92 high) not decisively taken out, cable could be forming a top at the current price level.

On the downside, break of 1.9723/26 support will indicate that the rise from 1.9183 has completed and put rising channel support (now at 1.9459) back into focus. Firm break of the channel support will indicate that the whole rally from 1.8090 has completed and add much credence to the case that an important medium term top is already formed and put focus to 1.9183 low. However, sustained trading above mentioned 2.0106 resistance will dampen the above interpretation and indicates that underlying bullishness in cable is much stronger then we thought. Further medium term rally should then be seen towards 61.8% projection of 1.3680 (01 low) to 1.9554 (05 high) from 1.7047 (05 low) at 2.0677.

USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2005; (P) 1.2055; (R1) 1.2106; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

USD/CHF rebounds to as high as 1.2088 today but after all it’s still limited below mentioned 1.2105 resistance. Outlook remains unchanged. Further decline is still mildly in favor as long as 1.2105 holds. . Break of 1.1993 will encourage further fall towards next medium term target of 1.1878 low. However, with bullish convergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI as background, break of 1.2105 resistance will suggest that the whole decline from 1.2282 has completed at 1.1993 already. In such case, much stronger rally should be seen towards 1.2282 high.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook remains bearish with USD/CHF staying below both 55 days EMA and 55 weeks EMA. Daily and weekly MACD are both still staying negative, supporting this view too. The preferred interpretation at this point is that the whole down trend from 1.3283 is still in progress with the first move from 1.3283 finished with three waves down to 1.1919. Subsequent rebound to 1.2768 was the interim correction and price actions from there represent resumption of such down trend. Further decline should be seen to 1.1878 low and sustained break will add more credence to this view and bring further medium term weakness towards 100% projection of 1.3283 to 1.1919 from 1.2768 at 1.1404.

However, note that USD/CHF is still bounded in wide range of 1.1878 to 1.2768. A rebound to above 1.2282 resistance will dampen this view and indicate that the fall from 1.2571 has completed after meeting 1.2027 fibo support. Another rise could then be seen to retest this high and then the upper end of the range at 1.2768.

USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 119.08; (P) 119.41; (R1) 119.93; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

While yen recovers in crosses, USD/JPY remains bounded in tight range. At this point, USD/JPY is still struggling to take out short term falling trend line resistance as well as 119.86 resistance. Short term outlook remains neutral. On the one hand, further rally cannot be ruled out as long as USD/JPY stays above 118.85 support. But firm break above 119.86 resistance is needed to confirm underlying bullishness. Otherwise, the rise from 117.60 could merely be a rebound before another sharp decline. On the the other hand, a break below 118.85 is needed to indicate rebound from 117.60 has completed and bring fall towards 117.20 support.

In the bigger picture, our view remains unchanged so far. Previous break of medium term rising channel support (108.99, 114.41, 117.87) indicates the whole up trend from 108.99 has completed at 122.17. Weekly MACD’s stay below signal line is still supporting this. The corrective nature of the rise from 108.99 swings favors back to the case that such medium term rally is merely part of a large scale consolidation that started at 121.38, with first leg completed at 108.99 and second leg completed at 122.17. The fall from 121.17 should then the third leg of such consolidation and deeper decline should at least be seen to below 114.02/41 support zone (61.8% retracement of 108.99 to 122.17 at 114.02) first with much possibility of further fall to retest 108.99 low.

However, sustained trading above 119.48 fibo resistance (61.8% retracement of 122.17 to 115.13) will indicate that a stronger rebound is underway. Also, price actions from 122.17 is probably developing into sideway consolidation to rise from 108.99 only, instead of as the third leg of consolidation that started at 121.38. In such case, a rest of 122.17 high could then be seen. But still, firm break above this resistance is needed to confirm medium term rally from 108.99 has resumed. Otherwise, medium term outlook will be neutral at best.

EUR/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 162.55; (P) 162.90; (R1) 163.61; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

EUR/JPY retreats mildly from record high of 163.29 today. Mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI suggest that upside momentum is diminishing. Below 162.18 minor support will indicate an intraday top is formed and bring further pull back. However, note that rise from 150.75 should still be in progress as long as EUR/JPY remains comfortably inside the short term rising channel (support at 161.35) and further rally is still in favor towards 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64. But, sustained break of this channel support will warn that the whole rise from 150.75 has completed and bring deeper correction 159.60 support first.

In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY’s strong close above medium term rising channel resistance (now at 162.03 suggests that strength of the current rise from 150.75 could be much stronger than we thought. But still, with the interpretation of the rise from 130.60 remains unchanged with first wave ended at 143.60, subsequent correction ended at 137.167. The third wave up ended at 159.63 while fourth wave correction has ended at 150.75. Rise from there represents the final advance in this structure, targeting 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64 and could terminate there.

On the downside, break of the short term channel support will indicate that rise from 150.75 has completed and deeper correction should then be seen towards 55 days EMA (now at 158.52). Also, this will give a serious warning signal that the whole rise rise from 130.60 has ended. EUR/JPY should set to channel the medium channel support (now at 152.83) in case this EMA is taken out decisively.

Forex News Digest

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aqZ7LVmLYmL4&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=azKW.ik2JECg&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=axDiIg_uvo.I&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aR7woxanCWic&refer=currency

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r911064211
Mon, 30 Apr 2007 05:26:00 GMT from Bloomberg

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r911056408
Mon, 30 Apr 2007 05:18:00 GMT from Bloomberg

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r911042426
Mon, 30 Apr 2007 04:57:00 GMT from Reuters

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r911020477
Mon, 30 Apr 2007 04:27:00 GMT from ABC Money

http://www.actionforex.com/latest_news/latest_news/forex_news_20060323537/ Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
06:00 EUR Germany Retail sales M/M Mar -0.70% 0.80% 1.50% 1.00%
06:00 EUR Germany Retail sales Y/Y Mar 0.50% -0.60% -1.60%
08:00 EUR Euro-Zone M3 Y/Y Mar 9.70% 10.00%
08:00 EUR Euro-Zone M3 3 Month Avg Y/Y Mar 9.80% 9.90%
08:30 GBP U.K. Gfk survey Apr -8 -8
09:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer sentiment Apr -4 -4
09:00 EUR Eurozone Business climate Apr 1.60% 1.55%
09:00 EUR Eurozone HICP Y/Y Apr 1.80% 1.90%
12:30 USD U.S. PCE index M/M Mar N/A 0.40%
12:30 USD U.S. PCE index Y/Y Mar 2.20% 2.40%
12:30 USD U.S. Core PCE M/M Mar 0.10% 0.30%
12:30 USD U.S. Core PCE Y/Y Mar 2.20% 2.40%
12:30 USD U.S. Personal income Mar 0.50% 0.60%
12:30 USD U.S. Personal consumption Mar 0.50% 0.60%
12:30 CAD Canada GDP M/M Feb 0.20% 0.10%
13:45 USD U.S. Chicago PMI Apr 54.5 61.7
14:00 USD U.S. Construction spending Mar 0.20% 0.30%
Japan Market holiday

http://www.actionforex.com/general_information/forex_newsletters/forex_newsletter_200507301487/

Vladimir Putin delivered the strongest attack of his seven-year presidency on the US yesterday, blaming it for fanning conflicts across the world through the unilateral use of ‘hyper-force’. He said America was seeking to impose its standards on other nations, triggering new arms races and the spread of nuclear weapons, and threatening Russia through new missile shield programmes.

In a blistering assault that reflected the Kremlin chief’s self-confidence and conviction that he has restored Russia’s international clout after years of decline, Putin told a security conference in Munich that America was destroying the international system and seeking to eliminate nuclear deterrence through the uncontained use of its power. ‘One state, the United States, has overstepped its national borders in every way,’ he told dozens of Western ministers and policy-makers including the US Defence Secretary, Robert Gates, and a likely Republican presidential contender, Senator John McCain.

‘This is very dangerous. Nobody feels secure any more because nobody can hide behind international law,’ Putin said. ‘This is nourishing an arms race with countries seeking to obtain nuclear weapons… We’re witnessing the untrammelled use of the military in international affairs… Why is it necessary to bomb and to shoot at every opportunity?’

The Russian leader accused Washington of plotting to evade its commitments to cut nuclear arsenals - already made through US-Russian arms treaties - and raged against the Pentagon’s plans to site parts of its missile shield project in Poland and the Czech Republic. ‘I don’t want to suspect anyone of aggressiveness,’ said Putin. ‘But if the anti-missile defence is not targeted at us, then our new missiles will not be directed at you.’

The tirade indicated that the Kremlin is gearing up for confrontation with the Americans. He did not have a good word to say about Washington’s policies.

McCain told The Observer the speech was ‘the most aggressive from a Russian leader since the end of the cold war’, adding that it was confrontational, with some of the observations bordering on paranoia. The US Defence Secretary sat stony-faced throughout Putin’s words,

The Kremlin spokesman, Dimitry Peskov, denied that his leader had intended to be aggressive or confrontational, but said that the time was right for Putin to throw down the gauntlet.

On several key disputes dominating the international agenda, Putin came out in flat opposition to the Americans. Russia was supplying Iran with air defence equipment, for example, so that Tehran did not feel surrounded by enemies.

With the US pushing for independence for the Albanian-dominated province of Kosovo in former Yugoslavia, Putin said he would block independence unless Serbia agreed to it. In Russia, he added, Western non-governmental organisations operated as ‘instruments’ of Western governments.

He reserved his bitterest complaints, however, for the US drive to expand Nato into former Soviet eastern Europe and for the plans to deploy parts of the missile shield in central Europe. ‘Why do you need to move your military infrastructure to our borders?’ he declared.

McCain insisted that the missile shield was defensive and did not threaten anyone.