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Small- and Mid-Cap Alternatives for American Funds Fans

May 31st, 2007 by admin

A version of this article appeared in the May 2007 issue of Morningstar’s American Funds Fund Family Report, our monthly newsletter dedicated to helping American Funds investors find superior long-term investment opportunities. To review a risk-free trial issue, http://www.morningstar.com/Products/Store_FFR.html. Fund Family Reports on Fidelity and Vanguard Funds are also available.

All figures are as of May 15, 2007.

Investors looking for dedicated exposure toU.S.and non-U.S. small- and mid-cap stocks within the American Funds lineup have just one choice: http://quicktake.morningstar.com/FundNet/MorningstarAnalysis.aspx?Country=USA&Symbol=SMCWX http://quote.morningstar.com/Switch.html?ticker=SMCWX . Every other equity fund from American has at least 75% of its assets stashed in large caps. And while it’s true that both asset bloat and large caps’ arguably more appealing valuations (after small caps’ seven-year rally) have something to do with that heavy emphasis on behemoths, those funds have long invested that way. Even in March 2000–just as the bull market peaked and smaller, cheaper stocks began their run–just two of American’s 15 equity and balanced funds (other than Small Cap World) invested more than 45% of their equity portfolios in small- and mid-cap stocks.

The dearth of other smaller-cap options at American hasn’t been a big negative for investors–Smallcap World has performed respectably–but I thinkinvestors can do better. True, Smallcap World’s long-term returns look good both in its current category–world stock–and relative to the funds in its former home, the small-growth category. However, neither category is an ideal fit, given the fund’s focus on smaller firms all over the globe. When pitted against other world-stock funds with average market capitalizations under $2 billion, Smallcap World looks rather middling over the past five, 10, and 15 years.

Granted, the fund will likely look somewhat better versus that subgroup when growth stocks return to favor, but I think the fund also faces significant challenges going forward–starting with its $22 billion asset base. The fund’s expanding girth has necessitated the addition of two portfolio managers since December 2002, bringing the total number if skippers to seven, according to publicly available information. As a result, the fund’s list of holdings has gotten longer–it has increased about 70% over that span to a recent 581 equity positions, which may dilute future returns. Furthermore, the fund’s size makes it difficult to establish meaningful positions in small-cap companies without swamping their shares and creating liquidity concerns. For example, of the fund’s dozen largest U.S. holdings, its advisor owned at least 10% of the outstanding shares of five of them–and this fund was by far the largest (or sole holder) of four of those companies. Plus, the fund may own larger-than-10% positions in non-U.S. names. Its advisor isn’t required to report these stakes in SEC filings as it is for its positions in U.S. stocks.

Look Beyond American
Fortunately, investors can find smaller-cap alternatives outside of American Funds that provide broad diversification and solid returns. True, it’s difficult to find other world-stock funds with a similar focus to recommend–they’re few and far between, and the only one I’m truly comfortable with, http://quicktake.morningstar.com/FundNet/MorningstarAnalysis.aspx?Country=USA&Symbol=TEMGX http://quote.morningstar.com/Switch.html?ticker=TEMGX , closed to new investors at the end of April 2007. However, investors can still find good, available choices that cover U.S. and non-U.S. smaller-cap stocks; they’ll just need to buy a pair of them.Because U.S. equities comprise roughly half of all stocks’ market capitalization, I’d suggest a 50/50 split between a U.S. and non-U.S. fund. Following is a rundown of my favorites. I’m listing primarily broker-sold options,because many American Funds shareholders buy their funds that way. But I’ve included no-load offerings, too, for those who own American Funds through retirement plans and manage their own fund portfolios, or use fee-only advisors.

It’s worth emphasizing that I’m not recommending that investors bulk up on their exposure to small- and mid-cap stocks, whetherdomestic or international. In fact,given smaller firms’ dominance in recent years, some portfolio rebalancing may be in order. But I think pairing a good domestic-stock fund witha good foreign-stock fund is a sensible alternative to Smallcap World.

U.S.-Stock Options
http://quicktake.morningstar.com/FundNet/MorningstarAnalysis.aspx?Country=USA&Symbol=COVAX http://quote.morningstar.com/Switch.html?ticker=COVAX –This small-value fund is one of the few accomplished options in its category that remains open. (It’s relatively small at $600 million.) And while Columbia was tied up in the market-timing scandal, the firm has done a superb job of cleaning house, cutting fees, and instituting effective compliance systems. This fund’s duo of Christian Stadlinger and Jarl Ginsberg, who have run it since its 2002 inception, opt for companies with lower valuations that have made some progress in turning around their fortunes, rather than deeply troubled fare, and won’t shy away from so-called “growthier” sectors such as tech. Thus, their fine record isn’t simply a product of value stocks’ recent dominance. The fund is modestly priced, too.

http://quicktake.morningstar.com/FundNet/MorningstarAnalysis.aspx?Country=USA&Symbol=MSSFX http://quote.morningstar.com/Switch.html?ticker=MSSFX –A collection of five talented subadvisors working independently lend this no-load fund its appeal. Each constructs a compact portfolio of his bestnine to 15 ideas. The fund is less than four years old, but most of the skippers own superb long-term records. It has thus far landed in the small-growth corner of the Morningstar Style Box, but that’sdue to the managers’ contrarian approaches in the face of small-value stocks’ continued rally, as well as the value-oriented skippers’ big cash stakes. That tack has proved costly thus far–the fund lags its benchmark, the Russell 2000 Index–but I think its prospects are bright. I also like that the fund’s advisor has pledged to keep its size quite modest.

http://quicktake.morningstar.com/FundNet/MorningstarAnalysis.aspx?Country=USA&Symbol=HRSCX http://quote.morningstar.com/Switch.html?ticker=HRSCX –This fund employs two subadvisors. Growth skipper Bert Boksen has run half of the fund since 1995, and boasts a fine record at mid-growth charge Heritage Diversified Stock http://quote.morningstar.com/Switch.html?ticker=HAGAX . Two managers just took over the other, more value-oriented half of the fund in January 2007, but they previously did a bang-up job in a four-year stint at http://quicktake.morningstar.com/FundNet/MorningstarAnalysis.aspx?Country=USA&Symbol=PIMCX http://quote.morningstar.com/Switch.html?ticker=PIMCX , and Hertiage has a history of good manager selection. This fund resides in the small-growth category, but it’s far more valuation-sensitive than most rivals. A small asset base and 1.24% expense ratio bolster its appeal.

Foreign-Stock Options
http://quicktake.morningstar.com/FundNet/MorningstarAnalysis.aspx?Country=USA&Symbol=LAIAX http://quote.morningstar.com/Switch.html?ticker=LAIAX –I’ve long admired this Columbia subsidiary’s growth-at-a-reasonable-price philosophy and a team structure that allows analysts to focus on the same industries for many years. (And so would American Funds’ fans.) The fund has grown to a hefty $4.8 billion, but the telltale signs of asset bloat haven’t appeared: The number of holdings hasn’t changed much, its already-modest portfolio turnover hasn’t declined, and the team hasn’t moved up the market-cap ladder. What’s more, the fund has delivered solid results with below-average volatility.

http://quicktake.morningstar.com/FundNet/MorningstarAnalysis.aspx?Country=USA&Symbol=PRIDX http://quote.morningstar.com/Switch.html?ticker=PRIDX –This foreign small/mid-growth no-load fund takes a more aggressive tack than the fund above; manager Justin Thomson and his crew won’t shy away from small companies and emerging markets and have posted big gains in rallies. But they’ve also shown a knack for reigning in their bets in a sufficiently timely fashion to keep the fund afloat in difficult environments. Thus, the fund’s record is stellar during Thomson’s nine-year tenure. I’d like to see this fund close soon, but T. Rowe has generally done a good job with fund closures, and the fund’s 1.24% expense ratio is appealing.

http://quicktake.morningstar.com/FundNet/MorningstarAnalysis.aspx?Country=USA&Symbol=PNVAX http://quote.morningstar.com/Switch.html?ticker=PNVAX –Putnam’s market-timing issues and subsequent personnel turnover made me wary in the past, but its long-accomplished international team has recovered from the loss of its two most senior managers, and Putnam has taken big strides to become a more shareholder-friendly shop. I think the fund’s approach is a sensible, prudent one: The managers focus on companies with solid competitive advantages that generate strong returns on capital. While the fund’s recent returns, relative to its foreign small/mid-value rivals, look just so-so, a willingness to pay up a bit for companies with solid profit growth has held it back in value stocks’ rally.

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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Double Boosted by NFP and Trade Balance

May 31st, 2007 by admin

Action Insight | Written by ActionForex.com | Mar 09 07 14:27 GMT |
Forex Mid-Day Technical Report Dollar Double Boosted by NFP and Trade Balance

Dollar soars in early US session after Non-Farm Payroll and Trade Balance reports. Feb NFP shows the US economy added 97k jobs, which is close to expectation of 100k. However, Jan’s number was sharply revised up from 111k to 146k. Also, unemployment rate dropped from 4.6% to 4.5%. Average earnings rose 0.4% mom, higher than expectation of 0.3%. Overall the job report is more solid than expected. On the other hand, trade deficit narrowed more than expected to $59.1b, slightly better than expectation of $59.7b and back to below $60b level. Exports increased $1.4b to $126.7b while imports decreased $1.0b to $185.8b.

Dollar surges against euro, yen and swiss franc. Technically speaking, near term resistance against yen and swissy were broken, confirming the carry trade unwinding decline has completed, at least in short term, and more dollar strength should be seen. Meanwhile, not that weakness in yen and swissy has kept Sterling relatively stable as it’s supported in strong GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF rally. EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3106; (P) 1.3143; (R1) 1.3171; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

EUR/USD’s sharp decline in US session has pushed it through 1.3108 support, confirming that the recovery from 1.3070 has already completed after being limited by by 61.8% retracement of 1.3258 to 1.3070 at 1.3186. At this point, further weakness is expected to be seen to retest this 1.3070 low.

As discussed before, EUR/USD will still be treated as in sideway consolidation between 1.3070 and 1.3258 as long as this clusters support remains intact. However, sustained break of this support, together with 50% retracement of 1.2911 to 1.3258 at 1.3085, will complete a short term head and shoulder formation which should at least bring deeper decline towards 100% projection of 1.3258 to 1.3070 from 1.3185 at 1.2997.

In the bigger picture, the corrective fall from 1.3364 has completed with three waves down to 1.2865. With EUR/USD staying within medium term rising channel (lower channel line at 1.2858 now), medium term up trend from 1.1639 is still in progress. Current rally from 1.2865 is being treated as resumption of this up trend. Break of 1.3296 resistance will add more credence to this view and should push EUR/USD to a new high above 1.3364.

On the downside, below 1.3070/78 cluster support will warn that whole rise from 1.2865 has already completed at 1.3258, after being limited by 78.6% retracement of 1.3364 to 1.2865 at 1.3257 with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Break of 1.2939 will indicate rebound from 1.2865 is indeed a correction to the fall from 1.3364 only. That is, such correction from 1.3364 is still in progress and in such case, the rising channel line will be in focus again.

GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9252; (P) 1.9301; (R1) 1.9331; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

Cable’s consolidation from 1.9183 continues and outlook remains unchanged. A short term low should be in place at 1.9183 as recovery from there has brought 4 hours MACD to above signal line and RSI back from oversold region. Hence at long as cable stays above 1.9261 minor support, further recovery is still in favor. But still, firm break above 1.9412 support turn resistance is needed to indicate the fall from 1.9672 has completed. Otherwise, the fall from 1.9672 is still expected to resume after the consolidation. Below 1.9261 will encourage a retest of 1.9183 low, break will confirm recent decline has resumed for 100% projection of 1.9913 to 1.9400 from 1.9672 at 1.9159 first.

In the bigger picture, bearish divergence conditions are being displayed in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI already, suggesting that the whole up trend from 1.7047 might have completed before reaching mentioned 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067). Focus is still on 1.9237/61 cluster support. Decisive break of 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed and much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818, 161.8% projection of 1.9913 to 1.9400 from 1.9672 at 1.8842) first.

However, strong rebound from 1.9237/61 cluster support or break of 1.9672 resistance will indicate that the corrective fall from 1.9913 is merely correction to the rise from 1.8517 only and cable could make another high above 1.9913 and attempt to meeting 2.0106 cluster resistance before having a medium term reversal.

USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2190; (P) 1.2243; (R1) 1.2326; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/.

USD/CHF’s rebound extends further to as high as 1.2352 in early US session. Break of mentioned resistance zone between the short term falling trend line (now at 1.2283) and 100% projection of 1.2108 to 1.2254 from 1.2154 at 1.2303 indicates the whole decline from 1.2517 has completed at 1.2108. At this point, stronger rebound should be seen towards 161.8% projection 1.2108 to 1.2254 from 1.2154 at 1.2393 first. Break will encourage further rally towards 1.2436 resistance. Meanwhile, touching of 1.2295 resistance turned support will turn intraday outlook consolidative first.

In the bigger picture, the current rally has dampened the original short term bearish view and turned medium term outlook mixed. Further rise could be seen to retest medium term falling trend line (1.3283 to 1.2760, now at 1.2465), but firm break is needed to confirm medium term strength. Otherwise, USD/CHF could just be bounded in wide range sideway trading.

USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.98; (P) 116.72; (R1) 117.90; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

USD/JPY’s rally from 115.13 extends further to as high as 118.33 on broad based dollar strength and yen weakness. Firm break of mentioned 117.80 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 122.17 to 115.13 at 117.82) indicates that fall from 122.17 should have already completed at 115.13 and at this point, stronger rebound should be seen towards 61.8% retracement of 122.17 to 155.13 at 119.48. Touching of 117.17 will turned intraday outlook consolidative first.

In the bigger picture, previous break of mentioned medium term rising channel support (108.99, 114.41, 117.87, lower channel at 116.78 now) indicates that the whole medium term up trend form 108.99 has already completed at 122.17. With the corrective nature of the rise from 108.99, this will swing favors back to the case that such medium term rally is merely part of a large scale consolidation that started at 121.38, with first leg completed at 108.99 and second leg completed at 122.17. The current fall should then represent the third leg of such consolidation and deeper decline should at least be seen to below 114.02/41 support zone (61.8% retracement of 108.99 to 122.17 at 114.02) first.and probably further to 108.99 (06 low).

Having said that, even though the current rebound from 115.13 is stronger than originally expected, we’d still expect another fall to follow after finishing the current rebound. However, a drop below 115.13 low or clear short term reversal pattern is needed to be seen first. Otherwise, the current rebound could still extend further.

EUR/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.63; (P) 153.46; (R1) 154.71; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

EUR/JPY edges higher to 154.99 on broad based yen weakness in early US session. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside for 155.19 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 159.63 to 150.75 at 155.19). Below 154.13 minor support will turn intraday outlook consolidative first but still, as long as downside contained by 152.23 support, further rebound is in favor. Break of 152.23 support will argue that the rebound from 150.75 has completed and could bring retest of this low.

In the bigger picture, we’re treating the whole year long rise from 130.60 as resumption of the long term up trend with first wave ended at 143.60, subsequent correction ended at 137.167. The third wave up could have ended at 159.63 already after meeting 161.8% projection of 130.60 to 143.60 from 137.16 at 158.19. The current fall from 159.63 should represent the fourth wave correction of the whole rise from 130.60 and have met downside target lower channel line (143.60 to 159.63, 137.16, now at 150.89) already.

Strong rebound from the channel line will be consistent with this view and should bring another rally to retest 159.63 high before forming the major top. But still, a break above 155.19 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 159.63 to 150.75 at 155.19) is needed to indicate the whole fall from 159.63 has completed first. Meanwhile, sustained break of this channel and 38.2% retracement of 137.16 to 159.63 at 151.05) will dampen this view and suggest that much deeper decline is underway towards 147.71 support first.

Forex News Digest

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_Yx_V3tG.Fc&refer=home

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aYH7WUrNOq1M&refer=home

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=acThNc2BNYFU&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aF1Lw9eQ5MNI&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=a_Gc68kORH0E&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=alDgEQWpXClo&refer=currency

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r838502369
Fri, 9 Mar 2007 12:22:00 GMT from Bloomberg

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r838485203
Fri, 9 Mar 2007 12:05:00 GMT from Bloomberg

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r838474189
Fri, 9 Mar 2007 11:55:00 GMT from Reuters

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r838472350
Fri, 9 Mar 2007 11:53:00 GMT from Bloomberg

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r838437962
Fri, 9 Mar 2007 11:22:00 GMT from Reuters South Africa

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r838341326
Fri, 9 Mar 2007 09:44:00 GMT from Bloomberg

http://www.actionforex.com/latest_news/latest_news/forex_news_20060323537/ Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Japan Machine orders M/M Jan 3.90% 0.50% -0.70%
07:00 EUR Germany Trade balance (euro) Jan 16.2B 14.7 B 14.7 B 11.1B
07:00 EUR Germany Current account Jan 11.0B 10.0 B 9.8 B 15.6B
09:30 GBP U.K. Industrial prod’n M/M Jan 0.10% 0.20% -0.10%
09:30 GBP U.K. Industrial prod’n Y/Y Jan 0.40% 0.50% 0.40% 0.50%
09:30 GBP U.K. Manufacturing prod’n M/M Jan -0.20% 0.20% 0.20%
09:30 GBP U.K. Manufacturing prod’n Y/Y Jan 2.00% 2.40% 2.30% 2.40%
11:15 EUR ECB Weber speaks
12:00 CAD Canada Unemployment rate Feb 6.10% 6.20% 6.20%
13:30 USD U.S. Non-farm payrolls Feb 97K 100.0 K 111.0 K 146K
13:30 USD U.S. Unemployment rate Feb 4.50% 4.60% 4.60%
13:30 USD U.S. Avg earnings M/M Feb 0.40% 0.30% 0.20%
13:30 USD U.S. Trade balance (usd) Jan -59.1B -59.7 B -61.2 B -61.5B
13:30 CAD Canada Trade balance (cad) Jan 6.3B 4.70 B 4.98 B
13:30 CAD Canada Exports Jan 40.8B 39.8 B 40.38 B
13:30 CAD Canada Imports Jan 34.4B 35.0 B 35.40 B
15:00 USD U.S. Wholesale inventories Jan 0.00% -0.50%
15:00 USD U.S. Wholesale sales Jan N/A 1.80%
17:30 USD Fed’s Bies Speaks
18:30 USD Fed’s Kohn and Kroszner Speaks

http://www.actionforex.com/general_information/forex_newsletters/forex_newsletter_200507301487/

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THOMSON FINANCIAL NEWS TOP STORIES Global 0805 BST

May 31st, 2007 by admin

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Here are the top stories on Thomson Financial News

Roche Q1 sales reach top end of expectations, confirms sales growth target

ZURICH (Thomson Financial) - Roche Holding AG reported first-quarter group sales at the high end of expectations of 11.4 bln sfr, up 16 pct year-on-year, and confirmed its full-year guidance for double-digit sales growth at both group level and in the pharma division.

Roche also upgraded its target for EPS growth to above group sales, from growth in line with group sales.

Intel 1Q profit surges 19 percent

SAN JOSE, Calif. (AP) - After enduring a brutal year of plunging profits and massive job cuts, Intel Corp.’s first-quarter profit surge and sunnier financial forecast has analysts optimistic that the chipmaker’s painful turnaround is working.

The company said it earned $1.61 billion, or 27 cents per share, in the first three months of the year. That’s a 19 percent jump from the company’s net income of $1.36 billion, or 23 cents per share, in the same period last year.

IBM meets 1Q earnings forecast

BOSTON (AP) - Quarterly results from International Business Machines Corp. are falling into a pattern: Despite weak spots in certain geographies or business units, the company manages to hit its targets and increase its overall profitability.

The technology stalwart kept that model going Tuesday as it reported that first-quarter earnings rose 8 percent and matched Wall Street expectations. Investors knocked the stock down after hours, however, perhaps worried about IBM’s poor showing in its home market and its decline in services contract signings.

Yahoo 1Q profit drops 11 percent

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) - Yahoo Inc.’s first-quarter profit fell 11 percent, disappointing investors who have been betting that the Internet icon had regained its stride after stumbling through much of last year.

The letdown zapped Yahoo’s stock, which plummeted more than 8 percent after the results were released Tuesday. Management added to the angst by leaving its financial outlook for the remainder of the year unchanged from its last forecast three months ago.

TCI says ABN Amro’s extension of Barclays talks make its agenda ‘more relevant’

AMSTERDAM (Thomson Financial) - ABN Amro Holdings NV’s announcement yesterday that it will extend the exclusivity period of takeover talks with Barclays PLC makes shareholder TCI’s proposed agenda items for the bank’s upcoming AGM on April 26 “even more relevant,” the activist hedge fund said.

TCI says voting for its proposals will “send a clear message to the board: shareholders expect the board to pursue the best transaction - merger, sale or breakup - which will maximize shareholder value.”

Credit Suisse to acquire US mortgage lender Lime Financial for undisclosed sum

ZURICH (Thomson Financial) - Credit Suisse Group said late on Tuesday that it has agreed to acquire Lime Financial Services, a wholesale mortgage lender based in Oregon, for undisclosed an undisclosed sum.

The Swiss bank said it expects the deal to close “later this summer” subject to regulatory approvals.

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