Action Insight | Written by ActionForex.com | May 22 07 14:07 GMT |
Forex Mid-Day Technical Report Dollar Consolidates as Paulson Meets Chinese Officials

Without any catalyst, dollar turns sideway against majors as US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson kicks off the Strategic Economic Dialogue (SED) meetings between the US and China in Washington, to reduce a record trade gap between the two countries. Paulson emphasizes that the talks must yield results to counter a growing “anti-China” sentiment. The Chinese delegation is led by Vice Premier Wu Yi who commented in the start of the meeting that China should firmly oppose trade protectionism. Closing statements will be released tomorrow.

Euro was unmoved by solid ZEW economic sentiments released today. German Investor sentiment continued to rise, with ZEW index for May rising from 16.5 to 24.0. Both the key expectations and current conditions gauges improved, suggesting that concerns over the lasting impact of January’s VAT hike have been all but removed. Other news saw the United Arab Emirates said it will maintain its peg to the dollar, scotching speculation of a revaluation. EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3424; (P) 1.3478; (R1) 1.3519; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

EUR/USD continues to trade sideway above 1.3435, being supported by 55 days EMA (now at 1.3435). As discussed before, the fall from 1.3609 is still in force as long as 1.3525 resistance holds and further decline is expected to follow towards 100% projection of 1.3681 to 1.3461 from 1.3609 at 1.3389. On the upside, above 1.3525 will indicate lengthier consolidation might follow first. But still, it will take a strong rebound to above 1.3609 resistance to confirm that decline from 1.3681 has completed. Otherwise, short term risk remains on the downside.

In the bigger picture, risk of 1.3681 being an important medium term top continues to increase. As discussed before, medium term up trend from 1.1639 is interpreted as having first move completed with three waves up to 1.2978, subsequent sideway consolidation completed at 1.2483. Rise from 1.2483 is treated as resumption of the whole up trend from 1.1639. With such interpretation, we’d expect risk of medium term reversal to increase significantly after EUR/USD met resistance zone between 1.3668 and 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. Hence, focus is now on reversal signals.

On the downside, break of the short term rising channel support is already a warning that the rise from 1.2865 has completed. Decisive break of 1.3364 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2865 to 1.3681 at 1.3369) will confirm such case. More importantly, with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD and RSI, this will warn that the whole rally from 1.2483 has also completed, and, so is the whole up trend from 1.1639. Focus will then be back to medium term rising channel support (now at 1.3032).

GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9673; (P) 1.9715; (R1) 1.9753; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

Cable’s consolidation from 1.9676 continues into US session. Outlook remains unchanged. Further decline is expected to follow as long as 1.9778 resistance holds and next downside target will be support zone of medium term rising channel support (now at 1.9551) and 1.9545 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.9183 to 2.0132 at 1.9546). Above 1.9778 will turn intraday outlook consolidative again. But still, break of 1.9874 is needed to indicate fall from 2.0132 has completed and bring strong rebound. Otherwise, short term risk remains on the downside.

In the bigger picture, risk of medium term reversal continues to increase. Firstly, the whole up trend from 1.7047 is not clearly impulsive. One interpretation is that rally from 1.7047 ended with three waves up to 1.9024. Subsequent correction ended at 1.8090. Rally from 1.8090 has already met mentioned target of 100% projection of 1.7047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067. Secondly, regardless of the larger trend, rise from 1.8090 can be interpreted as being a five wave sequence with first wave ended at 1.9142, second at 1.8517, third at 1.9913 and fourth at 1.9183. The channeling property supports this interpretation too. In such case, the fifth wave rally from 1.9183 has also met target of 61.8% projection of 1.8517 to 1.9913 from 1.9183 at 2.0046 too. With bearish divergence condition remains in weekly RSI and daily MACD and key 2.0106 resistance (92 high) not decisively taken out, 2.0132 could be the important medium term top already.

On the downside, firm break of the medium term rising channel support (now at 1.9551) will indicate that the whole rally from 1.8090 has completed and add much credence to the case that an important medium term top is already formed and put focus to 1.9183 low. However, sustained trading above mentioned 2.0106 resistance will dampen the above interpretation and indicates that underlying bullishness in cable is much stronger then we thought.

USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2268; (P) 1.2298; (R1) 1.2334; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

USD/CHF continues to consolidate below 1.2331 into US session. Still, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 1.2268 support holds, and further rally is expected to be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.2571 to 1.1993 at 1.2350. Touching of 1.2268 will turn intraday outlook consolidative and bring pull back. But a break below 1.2124 support is needed to indicate rebound from 1.1993 has completed. Otherwise, another rise is still in favor after completing brief consolidation

In the biggest picture, firm break of 1.2282 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 1.2571 to 1.1993 at 1.2282) confirms that fall from 1.2571 has already completed at 1.1993 with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and RSI. More importantly, this will increase the chance that USD/CHF is about to complete a medium term head and shoulder bottom formation (ls: 1.1919, h: 1.1878, rs: 1.1993). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement at 1.2350 and neckline resistance (1.2768 to 1.2571, now at 1.2355) will add more weight to this case. Stronger rally should then be seen to 1.2571 first and then 1.2768.

However, below 1.2124 support will indicate that rebound from 1.1993 has possible completed and save the case that recent choppy price actions could merely be part of a medium term triangle consolidation. And, down trend from 1.3283 should still resume after completing such consolidation in such case.

USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.10; (P) 121.35; (R1) 121.69; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

USD/JPY retreats mildly after reaching as high as 121.62. At this point, further rally is still in favor as long as 120.67 support holds and next upside target will be 122.17 high. However, as displayed in mild bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI, USD/JPY could be losing momentum and upside could be limited by this 122.17 key resistance. On the downside, touching of 120.67 again will indicate a short term top is possibly formed. But still, as long as 119.43 support holds, rally from 117.60 is still in force and another rise is expected to follow after brief consolidation.

In the bigger picture, previous break of medium term rising channel support (108.99, 114.41, 117.87) indicates the whole medium term rally from 108.99 has completed at 122.17. However, current strong rally from 115.13 suggest that price actions from 122.17 is just developing into sideway consolidation to rise from 108.99 only, instead of a sharp reversal. Hence, a retest of 122.17 high is expected to be seen. But still, firm break above this resistance is needed to confirm medium term rally from 108.99 has resumed. Otherwise, medium term outlook will be neutral at best and there should still be another fall to retest 115.13 low before completing such consolidation.

On the downside, below 119.43 cluster support will indicate that the rise from 117.60 has finished and thus warn that the whole rebound from 115.13 has completed too. Focus will then be on 117.60 support and firm break will confirm such case. Deeper fall should then be seen to retest this low and probably further towards 114.02/41 support zone (61.8% retracement of 108.99 to 122.17 at 114.02).

EUR/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 163.24; (P) 163.58; (R1) 163.93; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

EUR/JPY continues to consolidate in early US session and is still pressing 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 163.24). Even though upside momentum remains convincing, EUR/JPY could still continue to crawl towards 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64 as long as 162.64 support holds. Below 162.64 will suggest a short term top is formed and bring deeper correction towards short term rising trend line (now at 161.80).

Also, we’d like to maintain that risk of short term reversal remains high after previous break of the short term rising channel, with bearish divergence condition staying in 4 hours MACD and RSI and with daily MACD remains below signal line. Also, it’s possible that EUR/JPY is now in formation of a diagonal triangle to conclude the rally from 150.75. Hence, upside could be limited by 164.64 on loss of momentum and bring reversal. Break of 161.05 support will add much weight that rise from 150.75 has ended and deeper decline should then follow to 159.60 support first.

In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY’s previous break above medium term rising channel resistance suggests that strength of the rally from 150.75 is stronger than we originally thought. But still, interpretation of rally from 130.60 remains unchanged. First wave up ended at 143.60, subsequent correction ended at 137.167. The third wave up ended at 159.63 while fourth wave correction has ended at 150.75. Rise from there represents the final advance in this structure, targeting 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64 and could terminate there.

On the downside, rise from 150.75 could still resume as long as 159.60 support holds. However, sustained trading below 159.60 will warn that prior break of medium term rising channel resistance was merely a throw-over. Also, this will give a serious warning signal that the whole rise rise from 130.60 has ended. EUR/JPY should set to test the medium channel support (now at 153.51) in such case.

Forex News Digest

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=au.7Kc8oC00s&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aFcioLKKpMuE&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=auUmVetg5PUI&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aqZDui1zFqAY&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aGOE2y9YyBdw&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aTYT_7kRF.8o&refer=currency

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r944313555
Tue, 22 May 2007 12:01:00 GMT from AP via MSN Money

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r944297217
Tue, 22 May 2007 11:46:00 GMT from Bloomberg

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r944282505
Tue, 22 May 2007 11:32:00 GMT from Washington Post

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r944232040
Tue, 22 May 2007 10:49:00 GMT from Reuters

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r944208269
Tue, 22 May 2007 10:29:00 GMT from Bloomberg

http://www.actionforex.com/latest_news/latest_news/forex_news_20060323537/ Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
05:00 JPY BOJ meeting minutes Apr
07:15 CHF Swiss Combined PPI M/M Apr 0.90% 0.50% 0.30%
07:15 CHF Swiss Conbined PPI Y/Y Apr 2.60% 2.10% 2.40%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Trade balance (euro) Mar 7.4B 3.0 B -1.7 B -1.3B
09:00 EUR Germany ZEW index May 24 24 16.5
09:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW index May 22.3 14.5 10.7
10:00 EUR ECB’s Trichet speaks
13:15 USD Treasury Paulson Meets Chinese Officials
22:00 USD Fed’s Bernanke Speaks
23:30 USD Fed’s Lacker Speaks On Inflation
EUR Germany Import price index M/M Apr 0.50% 0.60%
EUR Germany Import price index Y/Y Apr 0.00% 0.90%

http://www.actionforex.com/general_information/forex_newsletters/forex_newsletter_200507301487/

2007-03-02 15:03:48

Kirchner lauds economic recovery

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (AP) - Argentine President Nestor Kirchner trumpeted

his government’s performance on the economy and human rights during his

state-of-the-nation address, and also defended his ties to Venezuelan leftist

Hugo Chavez.

2007-03-02 14:44:40

Austria’s budget deficit to decrease to 1.12 pct of GDP in 2007 - minister

VIENNA (AFX) - The Austrian coalition government plans to reduce the budget

deficit to 1.12 pct of gross domestic product in 2007 from 1.2 pct in 2006 and

then to 0.88 pct for the following year.

2007-03-02 14:02:45

Czech public finances ‘an obstacle’ to adopting the euro - central bank official

PRAGUE (AFX) - The current state of the Czech Republic’s finances is an

obstacle to the country switching to the euro, a top official at the Czech

central bank (CNB) said.

2007-03-02 13:29:44

Indian inflation falls to 6.05 pct vs 6.63 previous week

NEW DELHI (AFX) - India’s inflation rate has fallen by over half a

percentage point, helped by cheaper food and fuel, official data showed today,

easing pressure on the government.

2007-03-02 11:15:27

Polish economy grows 6.4 pct in fourth quarter

WARSAW (AFX) - Poland’s gross domestic product grew by 6.4 pct in the fourth

quarter of last year on a 12-month comparison, official data showed.

2007-03-02 11:15:13

Estonia Jan industrial output up 7 pct up yr-on-yr, down 1 pct vs Dec

TALLINN - Estonia’s industrial output in January rose 7 pct from a year

earlier but fell 1 pct from December, BNS news service reported, citing the

Statistical Office.

For more information and to contact AFX: www.afxnews.com and www.afxpress.com

For more information and to contact AFX: www.afxnews.com and www.afxpress.com

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - US SUMMARY: Stocks fall as oil soars on Nigeria worries

Index Change Pct change

*DJIA 12919.40 -42.58 -0.33

*Nasdaq 2523.67 -2.72 -0.11

*S&P 500 1480.93 -3.42 -0.23

Dow Future 12974.00 -45.00 -0.35 (2014 GMT)

Nasdaq Future 1866.50 +3.50 +0.19 (0332 GMT)

S&P Future 1488.20 -0.10 -0.01 (0343 GMT)

eur-usd 1.3576 -0.0026

Brent crude

Nymex 65.89 usd +1.78 usd

10 yr US

treasury 4.65 pct

* yesterday’s close

STOCKS: Stocks retreated from historically lofty levels Monday as rising oil prices chilled investor enthusiasm for strong earnings reports and new takeover activity. The Dow Jones industrials came within 17 points of 13,000 before

pulling back.

The blue chip index hit a new trading high of 12,983.92 after British bank Barclays PLC said it will acquire Dutch bank ABN Amro NV for 91.16 bln usd, and British drugmaker AstraZeneca PLC said it will buy US drugmaker MedImmune

Inc for 15.6 bln usd. Though the US economy has been slowing and the dollar has been weakening, global takeover activity remains robust, giving investors reason to believe US companies will keep finding ways to pull in profits. But

the market was still vulnerable to a downturn. Corporate growth is slower than it has been in years, though, and investors grew cautious as they awaited more clues about the direction of the economy. And so Monday, a spike in crude

oil prices above 65 usd a barrel reignited inflation worries, and reminded Wall Street that other economic obstacles exist as well, such as a weak dollar and slow housing market.

Analysts said investors were trading deliberately — and avoided succumbing to pre-13,000 euphoria. Although the Dow passed 12,000 only last October, there appeared to be little of the kind of frenzy that drove the market’s major

indexes to record after record during the dot-com boom.

Corporate profits have been cooling after more than three years of double-digit growth, but nonetheless have been generally stronger than expected so far this earnings season.

After the closing bell, Texas Instruments Inc issued better-than-expected first-quarter results. Shares closed down 9 cents at 32.41 usd in the regular session, but surged 8.6 pct to 35.20 usd in after-hours trading.

Other earnings reports from companies including Hasbro Inc, Novartis SA and Kimberly-Clark Corp came in strong. Hasbro rose 2.33 usd, or 7.7 pct, to 32.54 usd, while US shares of Novartis fell 39 cents to 57.44 usd. Kimberly-Clark fell

84 cents to 71.10 usd.

Merger-and-acquisition activity continues to surge. Barclays’ buy of ABN Amro would be the world’s biggest bank deal, and will lead to ABN Amro selling its US unit, LaSalle Bank, to Bank of America Corp for 21 bln usd. Bank of

America fell 53 cents to 50.51 usd. MedImmune, AstraZeneca’s takeover target, rose 8.56 usd, or 17.8 pct, to 56.57 usd. AstraZeneca fell 3.13 usd, or 5.3 pct, to 55.91 usd.

Later this week, investors will see results from six more of the Dow component companies, as well as data on the housing market, durable goods, gross domestic product and consumer confidence.

FOREX: The dollar rose slightly against the euro and British pound on Monday, but is still trading at historically low levels versus those currencies.

The dollar’s recent drop is not necessarily bad for the US economy; it makes US goods comparatively cheaper and therefore more attractive to foreign importers. However, a weaker dollar reduces its allure as an investment currency,

especially as interest rates rise in other countries.

BONDS: US Treasury prices rose as stocks fell. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 4.65 pct from 4.67 pct late Friday.

OIL: Crude oil prices soared above 65 usd a barrel Monday on fears that escalating violence in Nigeria could result in supply disruptions, while gasoline prices climbed toward a seasonal peak.

Early estimates for draws on the country’s crude oil and gasoline stocks pushed prices higher, analysts said.

Last week, US gasoline inventories stood at the lowest level since October 2005 and were about 3 pct below the level at this time last year, said Citigroup Global Markets energy analyst Tim Evans. The price of gasoline on the futures

market and at the pump historically peaks ahead of the summer driving season — when concerns about supplies reach a crescendo.

Light, sweet crude for June delivery climbed 1.78 usd to settle at 65.89 usd a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose just shy of 66 usd earlier in the session, trading as high as 65.96 usd. Crude last topped 66 usd

a barrel on March 29.

June gasoline futures gained about 5 cents to settle at 2.16 usd a gallon. Last year, gasoline futures peaked at 2.505 usd a gallon on May 11, according to Evans.

On Monday, following government elections over the weekend in Nigeria, gunmen battled security forces in Nigeria’s southern oil region, leaving at least seven people dead in the area’s main city, police said. Traders pushed oil prices

higher on fears that political unrest and violence in that country — a main oil supplier to the US — would lead to further supply disruptions. Nigerian officials said the governing party candidate won presidential elections, but a top

opposition politician rejected the vote, alleging fraud. Observers of the US-based International Republican Institute pointed out irregularities in the voting.

The week leading up to the elections in Nigeria was chaotic and bloody. At least 49 people have died in election-related violence since April 14. Rising violence since early 2006 in the unruly southern region where crude is pumped

has cut Nigeria’s daily production by about one quarter and sent global crude prices higher. More than 150 foreigners have been kidnapped over the past year.

Oil prices were also supported by strong demand from China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer, which reported Monday that March crude oil imports rose 8.8 pct year on year. Analysts expect demand to remain strong if Beijing is unable to cool off the country’s sizzling economy, which grew 11.1 pct in the first quarter. Meanwhile, in Belgium, workers at four refineries that push through 800,000 to 1 mln barrels of oil a day are threatening to strike as early

as May 9 after wage talks broke down last week.

METALS: Gold prices fell Monday as a recovery by the dollar lessened the precious metal’s appeal as an alternative investment.

Gold futures for June delivery fell 1.60 usd to 694.20 usd an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

EVENTS:

Forest Laboratories Q4 results. EPS forecast 71 cents vs 28 (before market opens)

Pepsi Bottling Group Q1 results. EPS forecast 10 cents vs 14 (before market opens)

AT&T Q1 results. EPS forecast 61 cents vs 52 (1600 GMT)

Du Pont EI De Nemours & Co Q1 results. EPS forecast 1.03 usd vs 93 cents (1600 GMT)

Sun Microsystems Inc Q3 results. EPS forecast 1 cent vs LPS 6 cents (1600 GMT)

Northrop Grumman Q1 results. EPS forecast 1.14 usd vs 1.02 (1600 GMT)

Advance GDP by industry, 2006 (1230 GMT)

April consumer confidence (1400 GMT)

March existing home sales (1400 GMT)

April Richmond Fed Survey (1400 GMT)

ASIA SUMMARY: Stocks edge lower on Wall Street slide; oil prices down

Index Change Pct change

Nikkei 225 17344.86 -110.51 -0.63 (0336 GMT)

S&P/ASX 200 6184.90 -24.30 -0.39 (0336 GMT)

Straits Times 3367.06 -21.42 -0.63 (0337 GMT)

Hang Seng 20503.89 -52.68 -0.26 (0337 GMT)

BSE Sensex 13916.83 -11.50 -0.08 (0430 GMT)

usd-yen 118.408 -0.16 -0.14 (Intra-day trade)

usd-sgd 1.5147 -0.0025 -0.16 (Intra-day trade)

usd-inr 41.6575 -0.005 -0.012 (Intra-day trade)

10-year JGBs 1.665 pct -0.01 -0.89 (Intra-day trade)

Brent North Sea 67.93 usd -0.22 -0.32 (Intra-day trade)

crude for June

STOCKS: Asian shares edged lower today, following the overnight fall on Wall Street. Tokyo shares ended the morning session lower, mirroring Wall Street’s weakness. Many investors had stayed on the sidelines to wait for the announcement of the earnings of major companies. Yahoo Japan, Elpida Memory, KDDI and Nikko Cordial will report today their results for the fiscal year ended March 31, while Canon will release its results for the January-March quarter. Hong Kong shares were lower in morning trade, tracking Wall Street’s falls overnight as a spike in crude oil prices sparked fresh inflation worries. The sentiment was also hit by declines on the Japanese market. Manila shares slipped in early trading and showed its concern about the government’s higher-than-expected budget deficit in the first quarter. Indian shares opened slightly lower as the market awaits its central bank’s annual monetary and credit policy announcement today.

BONDS: Japanese government bond prices ended the morning session mostly higher, led by short-covering in the light of the softer performance of the equity market. Market expectations that today’s auction of 20-year government bonds would go smoothly had also lent support to the debt market. But, overall, trading was subdued, with investors waiting for new leads from economic data due to be released later in the week.

FOREX: The US dollar was trading mixed against major currencies in Sydney trade, keeping to a tight range ahead of key data releases this week which are expected to provide further insight on the state of the US economy. While the dollar remains out of favour as investors chase higher yielding currencies, it has been showing a slightly firmer trend helped by talk that the worst of the US housing downturn may be over. Tonight’s Conference Board report on April consumer confidence and the March existing home sales report will set the tone for a busy data week.

OIL: Prices edged lower in Asian trade on profit-taking in a market nervous over lost production in Nigeria, the world’s sixth biggest oil exporter. At 0249 GMT, New York’s main oil futures contract, light sweet crude for delivery in June, was 15 cents lower at 65.74 usd a barrel from 65.89 usd in late US trades overnight, when the contract jumped 1.78 usd. Ruling party candidate Umaru Yar’Adua won Nigeria’s presidential election on Monday but foreign observers questioned the credibility of the vote that, along with state polls the week before, claimed at least 200 lives. Opposition parties rejected the result, raising the political risk level in a major oil producer.

METALS: Gold continued lower yesterday, as the dollar clawed back ground lost against the major currencies last week. The metal remained near fresh 11-month highs hit earlier, however, and analysts remained upbeat its prospects. “In the precious sector we remain bullish on gold prices. Gold is biased to head towards the 700-715 usd an ounce level in the second and third quarters,” said JP Morgan analyst Michael Jansen. Separately, gold was underpinned by upbeat sentiment in the platinum and palladium market. Copper rose yesterday as robust Chinese imports fuelled supply fears in light of low global stocks. However, prices have not yet revisited seven-month highs hit last week as supply fears from Indonesia eased after a strike at Freeport McMoRan’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia was called off after workers were offered a pay rise. Nickel was sharply higher yesterday amid critically low stocks. Prices rose in spite of a small 18-tonne rise in stocks stored in LME

warehouses, as reported by the LME. Inventories are still so low that they would not satisfy a day’s worth of global consumption.

EVENTS:

Australia Q1 CPI

BHP Billiton Q3 production, development and exploration report

Australia’s AXA Asia Pacific Holdings Q1 business inflows report

Australia’s Santos Q1 production report

Caltex Australia AGM

Japan March corporate services price Index

Japan 20-year govt bond auction

Japan major automakers March global output

Japan’s KDDI FY results

Japan’s Elpida Memory FY results

Japan’s Canon Q1 results

Yahoo Japan FY results

Japan’s Fanuc FY results

Japan’s Nikko Cordial FY results

SKorea’s Samsung SDI Q1 results

Hong Kong-listed Lingbao Gold FY results

Hong Kong-listed Sinogas FY results

Hong Kong-listed SMIC FY results

Taiwan March export orders

Taiwan March industrial output

Taiwan’s AU Optronics Q1 results

Taiwan’s Taishin Financial Q1 results

Singapore’s Keppel T&T Q1 results

Singapore’s MobileOne Q1 results

Singapore Petroleum Q1 results

Singapore’s SMRT Corp FY results

Philippine 3-year Treasury bond auction

Indonesia’s Bank NISP EGM and AGM

Indonesia’s Berlian Laju Tanker AGM

Indonesia’s Lippo Bank AGM

India’s HDFC Bank FY results (0330 GMT)

India’s Maruti Udyog FY results (0430 GMT), press conference (0550 GMT)

Reserve Bank of India press conference on Monetary Policy (0800 GMT)

EUROPE SUMMARY: London shares close weaker but off lows; AstraZeneca down on bid talk

Index Change Pct change

*FTSE 6479.70 -7.10 -0.11

*DAX 7335.62 -6.92 -0.09

*CAC 5917.32 -21.58 -0.36

UK10-year

Bond 92.24 +0.1

UK 30-year

Bond 95.76 +0.06

stg-usd 2.0016 -0.0028

eur-usd 1.3578 -0.0022

sfr-usd 1.2084 +0.0004

Brent crude

ICE 68.15 usd +1.66 usd

* yesterday’s close

STOCKS: Leading shares closed weaker Monday, but off lows, with AstraZeneca falling back after the group’s acquisition plans of US MedImmune disappointed. Meanwhile Aviva PLC, the UK’s biggest insurer, is expected to report 11 pct growth in first quarter sales and profits today, buoyed by a first contribution from 2006 acquisition AmerUs. Plans for its 4 bln stg property portfolio and progress on the possible disposal of leisure arm David Lloyd are likely to overshadow group performance when Whitbread PLC announces its full-year results today. Steel group Outokumpu Oyj is expected to report a jump in first-quarter earnings, buoyed by high stainless steel prices, though investor interest in today’s report will be on the guidance for the rest of 2007, following the recent downturn in the sector. Banco Comercial Portugues first quarter to March results due today are expected to be boosted by flat costs, though a year-on-year comparison of the bottom line will reflect the lack of one-time gains, analysts said. Banco BPI is expected to report a solid set of first-quarter results today showing growth in net interest and trading revenues, while the star revenue performer is expected to be commissions, analysts said. Dutch chemicals and coatings group Akzo Nobel NV is expected today to report uninspiring first quarter results due to lower revenues at its Chemicals unit, but the focus will be on what Akzo plans to do with the 11 bln eur in cash from the sale of Organon BioSciences and restructuring at its Coatings unit. Austrian power utility Verbund AG is expected to report increased figures for the first quarter 2007 today thanks to improved water supply for electricity production. The Italian eyewear manufacturer Luxottica SpA is expected to release a weak set of first-quarter results following a decline in retail sales due to bad weather in the US and the dollar’s slide against the euro.

BONDS: European government bonds lost much of their early gains on Monday and settled into a range as investors took profits during a period of quiet newsflow and ahead of key US data today. Fears that the weakness of the US sub-prime mortgage market may have spread to the wider housing market will keep investors very sensitive to any downside surprises, analysts said. Another possible reason for the back-track in bond prices may be the improvement in equity prices on the US open. Meanwhile, in the UK, gilts also lost much of the ground gained in the morning, when high money supply growth data offset some mixed mortgage lending figures. M4 money lending rose 12.8 pct, above the 12.5 pct expected by the market, while mortgage lending eased somewhat from high levels. Today, eyes will be on a testimony by all the Bank of England rate-setters before the Treasury select committee. The market will be sensitive to views on how much further rates need to rise as well as the BoE’s outlook on inflation after a surprisingly high number was published last week.

FOREX: The euro came off earlier lows against the dollar yesterday but remained weak on profit-taking after the currency hit two-year highs last week and after dovish comments from the Greek representative on the European Central Bank. The euro earlier fell to a low of 1.3539 against the dollar. Although it has recovered from those levels it remains below the 1.36 usd mark.

Elsewhere, the pound edged back up above 2 usd after earlier touching six-day lows against the dollar of 1.9971 usd. The pound closed at 2.0016 according to Thomson Markets. The currency came under pressure after a report by the Ernst & Young ITEM Club overnight, which said the UK is “skating on thin ice” with its exceptionally high debt levels. It also warned that individuals and businesses are “overly relaxed about risk”.

METALS: Copper rose as robust Chinese imports fuelled supply fears in light of low global stocks. At 2.06 pm copper for three-month delivery stood at 7,945 usd, against 7,955 usd at the close on Friday. Also underpinning prices, copper inventories stored in LME-certified warehouses across the globe fell 925 tonnes to 147,100 tonnes, said the LME in a daily report. Nickel was sharply higher amid critically low stocks. Prices rose in spite of a small 18-tonne rise in stocks stored in LME warehouses, as reported by the LME. Nickel was up at 49,230 usd from 48,800 usd. In other metals, zinc was up at 3,675.75 usd against 3,600 usd, lead was at 1,970 usd against 1,930 usd, aluminium was up slightly at 2,845 usd against 2,842 usd. Tin rose to 13,850 usd against 13,675 usd at Friday’s close. Gold continued lower as the dollar clawed back ground lost against the major currencies last week.

Brent crude for June delivery jumped 1.66 usd to settle at 68.15 usd a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London.

EVENTS:

UNITED KINGDOM

INTERIMS

Associated British Foods

Bionostics

BP (Q1)

Character Group

York Pharma

FINALS

Formjet

Ukrproduct Group

Whitbread - Analysts expect pretax profit in the range of 204-212 mln stg, up from 181.1 mln last year.

AGMs

Bradford & Bingley

Brit Insurance

Datamonitor

Schroders

Northern Rock

NEW BUSINESS FIGURES

Aviva (Q1) - Aviva will report new business sales for the three months to March 31 of 7.527 bln stg on a Present Value of New Business Premiums basis, up from 6.788 bln stg in the same period last year, according to a consensus of analyst forecasts supplied by the company.

PRODUCTION REPORTS

BHP Billiton (March)

TRADING STATEMENTS

Carphone Warehouse (Q4)

ECONOMICS

UK March PSNCR (0930 BST)

CBI quarterly industrial trends survey (1100 BST)

AUSTRIA

Verbund Q1 results - According to a consensus of analysts polled by Thomson Financial News, revenues are expected to come in at 798.8 mln eur in the first quarter 2007 after 783.5 mln eur adjusted by eco-electricity processing (876.3 mln eur unadjusted) in the same period in 2006.

BENELUX

Akzo Nobel Q1 results - Rabo Securities said in a note to clients it expects group sales - excluding Organon - to fall to 2.443 bln eur from 2.748 bln eur in the same period last year (excluding Organon’s 644 mln eur in sales).

ING AGM (0930 GMT)

Belgian April business confidence indicator (1300 GMT)

Hagemeyer AGM

Endemol Q1 trading update

InBev AGM (0900 GMT). Press conference (1030 GMT)

Agfa-Gevaert AGM

Bekaert annual report published

GBL shareholders meeting

Euronav AGM

EASTERN EUROPE

Elmu AGM

Emasz AGM

FRANCE

L’Oreal Q1 sales; AGM (0800 GMT)

Danone Q1 sales (0530 GMT). webcast conference (0800 GMT)

Casino Q1 sales

Michelin Q1 sales

STMicroelectronics Q1 results (after US close)

GERMANY

Continental AG AGM

Volkswagen discussion on climate production, Volkswagen Automobil Forum, Berlin (0900 GMT)

SAP CEO Kagermann speaks at SAPPHIRE product press conference, Atlanta (1430 GMT)

GREECE

Mytilineos Holdings AGM

ITALY

Luxottica Q1 results. Conference call (1600 GMT) - Net profit forecast 120.3-125.9 mln

April consumer confidence (0730 GMT)

Unipol AGM (0830 GMT)

February retail trade (0900 GMT)

Lottomatica AGM (1st call)

Campari AGM (1st call)

Bulgari AGM (1st call)

PORTUGAL

BPI Q1 results (after market closes). News conference - Forecasts for net profit range from 82 mln eur at Banif to 82.3 mln eur at Lisbon Brokers and 84 mln eur at Caixa BI, up from 74.3 a year earlier.

BCP Q1 results (after market closes). News conference - Forecasts for net profit range from 184 mln eur at Lisbon Brokers to 186 at Caixa BI, down from 199 mln a year earlier. However, excluding 34 mln eur of one-time items a year earlier, proforma net profit will have risen by over 12 pct.

Novabase Q1 results (after market closes)

Galp board meets to decide on 2006 div proposal

SCANDINAVIA

Finnish March labour force survey (0600 GMT)

Fortum Q1 results (0600 GMT) - The company is to report first quarter pretax profit of 683 mln eur versus 492 mln eur last year

FOEX Pulp & Paper price statistics (0900 GMT)

Jyske Bank Q1 earnings (0800-0900 GMT)

Sydbank Q1 earnings (1000-1100 GMT)

UPM Kymmene Q1 results (1100 GMT)

Kone Q1 results

M-real Q1 results - The company’s quarterly pretax profit is seen growing to 76 mln eur, from 16 mln eur a year earlier, with expectations ranging from 48 mln eur to 94 mln eur, a Kauppalehti/SME poll of 16 analysts shows.

Outokumpu Q1 results (1000 GMT) - January-March pretax profit is seen coming in at 373 mln eur, up from 60 mln eur a year ago, according to analysts polled by Kauppalehti/SME.

Oriola-KD Q1 results

OMX Q1 results

MTG Q1 results

TeliaSonera Q1 results - TeliaSonera AB is expected today to report a first-quarter underlying EBITDA of 7.716 bln skr, little changed from the year-earlier 7.706 bln skr, on continued margin pressure but with cost cuts beginning to bite, analysts told Thomson Financial News.

SKF Q1 results - SKF AB is expected to report today a 6.3 pct rise in first-quarter pretax profits to 1.700 bln skr, on the back of continued strong demand for industrial products, with investor focus seen centring on the outlook, according to a survey of analysts by Thomson Financial News and SME Direkt.

Saab Q1 results

Subsea 7 Q1 results - Operating profit forecast 36 mln usd vs 45 mln; sales 430 mln vs 399 mln

Elisa Q1 results

SPAIN

Spain Gas Assn (Sedigas) conference on LNG (Barcelona 1st day)

CNMV chairman news conference for annual report (1530 GMT); CNMV chairman appears in Parliament

SWITZERLAND

Compagnie Financiere Richemont FY sales - Forecast 4.818-5.000 bln eur vs 4.308 bln

Micronas Semiconductor Q1 results

OC Oerlikon Q1 results

Bucher Industries AG Q1 sales

Swiss March watch exports

Swiss March trade surplus

UBS’ March Switzerland private consumption index

EUROPEAN UNION/EURO AREA

Euro zone Feb industrial orders (0900 GMT)

ECB main refi result (0915 GMT)

EU rules on inquiry into acquisition by General Electric Co of Abbott Laboratories’ diagnostics business

EU presents report on aid to the coal industry

EU court judgement on Netherlands’ breach of community law on ‘open skies’ agreement

TFN.newsdesk@thomson.com

ami/npr/jro

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